A Recession Is Imminent: Druckenmiller, Hyman, Rosenberg Renew Warnings

Publish date: 2024-08-13

Wall street experts including Mike Wilson and David Rosenberg have renewed their warnings of an oncoming recession.
"I think that by the summer, we'll start to see a recession unfold," said Ed Hyman, chairman of Evercore.
Here's a selection of the most recent economic outlooks from investors, analysts and other experts.

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After the latest data showed the US economy slowed sharply in the first quarter, Wall Street experts are voicing renewed warnings about the risk of a deeper downturn in the coming quarters.

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson and economist David Rosenberg are among those who have just sounded the alarm on an oncoming recession. At the same time, others including Nobel laureate Paul Krugman think a 'soft landing' - or a mild and non-disruptive slowdown - is still a possibility.

Below is a selection of the most recent economic outlooks from high-profile investors, analysts and other experts.

Ed Hyman, Evercore chairman

"The economy now is very strong. It's amazing. But I'm patient, and I think that by the summer, we'll start to see a recession unfold," the market veteran told Bloomberg Tuesday, adding that he didn't foresee a severe recession, like in 2008.

"I've never forecast a recession this far in advance."

David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research

"Recessions are like this odorless gas. They catch up on you," Rosenberg told CNBC Thursday, warning that a downturn could sneak up on the economy in the coming months.

In a recent note, he said recessions since World War II have typically started fifteen months after the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate hike of a policy-tightening cycle. As the Fed first began to raise rates in March 2022 in the current cycle, that suggests a recession will start this quarter, Rosenberg predicted.

Stanley Druckenmiller, boss of Duquesne Family Office

The US economy is headed for a "hard landing" and could slump into recession soon, the billionaire investor warned. He suggested a downturn could set in this quarter, and cautioned against assuming a modest decline.

"I am not predicting something worse than 2008," he said during the 2023 Sohn Investment Conference on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. "It's just naive not to be open-minded to something really, really bad happening."

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's top stock strategist

"We believe the equity market continues to expect the best of both worlds: interest-rate cuts and durable growth," Wilson said in a Monday podcast. "Instead, we believe another chapter of our fire-and-ice narrative is possible: in other words, a tighter Fed even as growth slows towards recession. This will be a difficult environment for stocks," he later warned.

Ed Yardeni, Market veteran and Yardeni Research chief investment strategist

"We doubt that QT will cause either an economic or an earnings recession, let alone both. In our 'rolling recession' scenario, earnings growth may be weak, but it should be positive," Yardeni said in a Monday note.

Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize-winning economist

Signs of a labor-market cooldown without a rise in unemployment is good news for the US economy, suggesting a mild slowdown in growth still remains a possibility, according to Krugman.

"The good news is that so far it seems as if we've been getting significant labor market cooling without a rise in unemployment," Krugman tweeted Wednesday. "Soft landing hopes are still very much alive," he wrote, referring to a scenario that involves a non-disruptive slowing of economic growth.

Ray Farris, Credit Suisse's chief US economist

Credit Suisse's head economist believes that while risk of a recession is high, it's not his base case outcome. "I fully accept that lot of these indicators suggest that we should have a recession," Farris said. "There are some differences in this cycle."

He told Insider he sees a soft-landing scenario as his base case for the US economy.

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