NBC could be an unlikely winner in the NBA TV rights battle, according to analysts

Publish date: 2024-08-09
2024-04-04T15:18:30Z

Basketball fans expect drama at this point in the year, with the March Madness tournaments and the NBA playoff race heating up. But, for the first time in a decade, an equally entertaining competition is taking place off the court as the NBA negotiates a new TV deal.

Talks between the NBA and its current broadcast partners tipped off on March 9. Disney's ESPN and Warner Bros. Discovery's TNT have 45 days to ink a deal with the league, and in late April, other suitors can officially enter the mix.

Amazon, Apple, and Netflix have been closely watched contenders as technology giants aiming to strengthen their streaming services. Yet some believe NBC is the wild-card bidder that industry observers should pay closer attention to, as it could be a perfect partner for the league.

The NBA is seeking a huge payday through the new deal, but it's also thinking about how to best reach its young, global fan base without irritating older cable viewers or spreading its games across too many platforms.

NBC has the platforms and financial firepower to meet the league's needs, as well as the motivation to land a deal as it looks to sports to supercharge Peacock, its streaming service.

"Comcast is all-in on making Peacock a success, and they're all-in on sports as a way to do it," veteran media analyst Craig Moffett told Business Insider.

Why NBC could be a perfect fit for the NBA

Barring a major upset, ESPN and WBD will continue to broadcast NBA games. Amazon also seems likely to get a national package for Prime Video in addition to its investment in regional-sports network Diamond Sports, which has half of local NBA rights.

NBC would be a smart fourth partner for the NBA.

The media giant reaches huge audiences as one of four major US broadcasters, and Peacock already found success in hosting NFL and Premier League games. Live sports matches made the streamer a cheap alternative to cable for cord-cutters as it's grown its subscriber base to over 31 million users from 4 million in mid-2021.

Streaming now accounts for over 37% of TV viewership, according to Nielsen. That's where younger audiences are, and the NBA knows it must reach them to stay relevant.

Importantly, NBC can afford a slate of NBA games since its parent company, Comcast, has over $6 billion in cash and a healthy rating on its debt.

Another potential advantage for NBC is its 70-year-long history with the NBA. The network used to broadcast NBA games nationally starting in 1954, and Comcast still shows games on its regional-sports networks in five markets. Comcast-subsidiary Sky Sports also aired NBA games in the United Kingdom for four years starting in 2019.

Will the NBA return to NBC?

Bringing NBA games to Peacock would be a huge win for NBC, as the network knows nothing drives TV ratings and streamer sign-ups in this fractured media landscape like live sports.

Comcast spent $100 million to get exclusive broadcast rights for an NFL playoff game on Peacock in January. That nine-figure gamble was a resounding success, as it brought in 23 million viewers and 3 million paid users. Even more impressive: 71% of those sign-ups stuck around after two months, which supports a finding from data firm Antenna that Peacock subscribers who joined for sports stick around at a higher rate than those who didn't.

The success of sports on streaming is a key reason some media-industry observers believe NBC should prioritize a deal with the NBA.

Moffett, the media analyst and MoffettNathanson cofounder, told BI he sees NBC entering the bidding war for NBA media rights if only to assist its streamer.

"It's hard to say how much commitment they have to a sports package for linear TV, but I would expect them to be aggressive in trying to secure sports streaming rights," Moffett said of NBC.

A representative for NBCUniversal declined to comment for this story, though a source familiar with the media-rights talks confirmed to BI that the company is interested in hosting NBA games again.

Joseph Bonner of Argus Research also expects NBC to take a shot at getting NBA rights. He told BI the NBA is incumbent rival WBD's to lose, but if the TNT-parent accepts a smaller package of games, it will open a window for NBC.

"Given the cost — and we can expect the NBA is looking for a significant increase in license fees — perhaps WBD would have no problem sharing them with Comcast," Bonner said.

One wrinkle for NBC is that the network isn't in the upcoming sports-streaming venture from Disney, WBD, and Fox. While this new platform may have more questions than answers, Bonner thinks its launch means Disney and WBD are all but locks to keep the NBA.

Unlike ESPN and TNT, NBC doesn't necessarily need NBA games. And it may shy away from challenging potential suitors like Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google-parent Alphabet — all of which have taken an interest in live sports. If the asking price gets too high, Bonner thinks the brass at Comcast and NBC may decide that the NBA is merely a luxury.

"Bottom line, I don't see anything to prevent Comcast from taking a shot at bidding for the rights though actually winning the rights would be more problematic," Bonner predicted.

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